Is the BTC/USD bear phase over?
That danger feeling in markets around the world. US and Asian equities futures went up, and gold pulled back a little from recent highs as traders moved back into riskier assets.
Bitcoin rose to between $110,000 and $113,000 late on Sunday in Asia, its highest level in almost two weeks.
Traders were happy to see movement in US–China trade talks that relieved fears of another tariff spiral.
Is the BTC/USD bear phase over?
The chart below has two parts. The bigger part on the left shows the BTC/USD price action using an hourly tick, and the smaller part on the right shows the daily price action. This not only makes it easier to detect important levels for shorter time frames, but it also shows longer-term signals and patterns, which is a good way to figure out where directional dangers might be. As of today, the latter signals that the bearish trend we’ve witnessed this month may be over.
Before the downtrend break that happened earlier today, people were buying bearish moves below $108,000 for the preceding two weeks. The last time on Thursday, there was an engulfing candle, and the bullish signal turned out to be correct based on what happened with the market since then.
The momentum picture on the daily timescale is also changing. The RSI (14) is moving up above 50, which is a sign that the market is getting more bullish. MACD hasn’t confirmed yet, but it’s getting close to the signal line from below and is on track to cross over into negative territory, which supports the idea that the tide may be turning.
Bulls quickly broke through resistance above $113,500 early in the session
The hourly chart shows the levels to think about while looking at possible setups. Bulls quickly broke through resistance above $113,500 early in the session, sending the price to its highest level in weeks. Resistance is at $116,000, which is above where BTC/USD is now trading. This level held the price down for two days earlier this month.
On the downside, $113,500 may now act as support again, giving bulls a possible entry point where they may set up longs above with a stop below for safety. Since the price is having a hard time staying above $115,000 right now, a fall is possible in the short term.
Longs can be set with a stop below, aiming for resistance at $118,000
If the bullish trend that was observed earlier in the session continues, $116,000 is another level that may be used to set up positions. Depending on how the price interacts with it if it gets there, it could be a bullish or bearish setup. If it breaks cleanly above, longs can be set with a stop below, aiming for resistance at $118,000. If it can’t break above that level, though, you might put shorts below it with a stop above it, aiming for either $114,400, where bids were seen earlier today, or perhaps $113,500.
The RSI (14) is above 70, which means that the hourly market is overbought and there is a chance of a reversal in the near future. MACD is still sending a bullish signal. It crossed the signal line from below in positive territory earlier and then started to rise. If you aren’t an ultra-short-term scalper, the best thing to do in this macro situation is to purchase dips.
Meeting between Trump and Xi to finish up a bigger deal.
The top negotiators from both countries said they had come to a “preliminary consensus” on a number of issues that were causing problems, such as export controls, fentanyl, and shipping taxes. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CBS that President Donald Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods is “effectively off the table.”
The statements came after two days of talks in Malaysia and before a planned meeting between Trump and Xi to work out the details of a bigger accord. That risk attitude in markets around the world. US and Asian stock futures went up, and gold fell a little from recent highs as traders moved back into risky assets.
Ether (ETH$4,175.07) added 2.6% to trade near $4,060, and BNB and Solana (SOL$200.47)
Ether (ETH$4,175.07) added 2.6% to trade near $4,060, and BNB and Solana (SOL$200.47) each rose almost 4.5%. XRP rose 2.3% to $2.64, continuing the gain from last week that was fueled by hopes for an ETF. The only big token that went down was Tron (TRX), which fell 2.9%.
According to CoinGecko data, the total value of all cryptocurrencies gained 1.8% to $3.72 trillion. This is a small increase after some of the drops that happened after this month’s liquidation cascade.
Analysts argue that the less harsh trade talk has provided markets a break after weeks of macro-driven volatility.
The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is less than a week away, and a long-term breakout will probably depend on how dovish the central bank’s tone becomes. For now, the global situation has calmed down enough for crypto to breathe again, and bitcoin‘s October won’t wind up being its worst since 2015.
In short
The tide could be turning for BTC/USD.
Last week, investors lined up to buy drops below $108,000, and on Thursday, they got an engulfing candle. These are more optimistic signals for bitcoin. Earlier today, the price broke through the downtrend from the record highs. This was supported by a very high risk appetite that has caused key market indices across Asia to reach record highs. As more and more timeframes show positive momentum indications, the path of least resistance may now be higher, not lower.
